The 53.2 billion gallon a year (BGY) biofuel industry is poised for a sharp slowdown in capacity growth, to a 3.2% annual rate from 2013 to 2017—60.4 billion gallons—off from 19.6% annually from 2005 to 2013, according to a new report from Lux Research.The sharp decline will be due to a significant industry transition to novel fuels and feedstocks, to enable long-term growth in the face of impediments such as the food vs. fuel debate and the imminent blend limits for biodiesel and ethanol. Next-generation biofuel—such as renewable diesel and butanol—that can offer higher blends, in contrast, are not quite mature.
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