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Ford shares Could Gain 40% Here’s Why

By Ben Levisohn

Shares of General Motors and Ford got good news today when Cars.com predicted sales of cars would continue at a more than 16 million annual rate for the remainder of 2014. And there’s more upside to come, at least in Ford.

MKM Partners’ chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky explains why he sees more upside in Ford shares:

Ford  is up over 11% YTD (SPX up 5.5%), and nearly 20% from its lows in January. While it clearly would have been a much better buy earlier in the year, by our work, the technical picture was rather ambiguous until recently. We now think the stock can be bought, on anticipation of a bigger breakout heading into the heart of the summer…

Ford has been trading above its 200 Day Moving Average for roughly a month, and the 200 DMA has just started to turn higher, a bullish development for the medium-term. On Tuesday, price traded right up to prior resistance in the $17.20 area and stalled. This represented the highs in November 2013, prior to a 16% decline into the January lows. Therefore, it is a logical area to pause, but given favorable momentum, we think it exceeds this resistance in the coming weeks…

We would target $18 over the coming weeks (~5% upside), and $23 – $24 over the next 6-12 months (35-40%).

Krinsky’s one caveat: If Ford can’t hold $16, he “would have to re-consider any bullish thesis.”

Shares of Ford have gained 1.6% to $17.23 at 2:29 p.m. yesterday.