Is $3.39 a gallon in our future? Maybe, but gasoline retail prices will peak at $3.83 a gallon in the spring, analysts at Gasbuddy.com said Thursday.

U.S. drivers should see “more temperate” gasoline prices than in the last three years. But there’s  potential for “dramatic price spikes and equally dramatic price plunges” it said as it forecast that the average price will fall by about 10 cents in 2014 to below $3.40 for the first time since 2010.

California gas prices will spend some time near the end of the first quarter above $4 a gallon, the analysts said.

Illinois, and to a lesser extent some of the adjacent Great Lakes states, could face a spike tied to refinery issues that would bring prices in some metropolitan areas some 50 to 75 cents/gallon above year-end 2013 numbers.

The interior of the country, however, is likely to have the greatest insulation against the superspikes, Gasbuddy said. Drivers in the Great Lakes, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain states “are among those most likely to see pricing points not documented since 2010.”

Travel and leisure group AAA said average retail gasoline prices for next year are likely to hover around $3.40 and $3.50 nationwide.

The average price for 2013 is seen around $3.50 — about 10 cents cheaper than 2012 prices, said AAA spokesman Michael Green. Prices currently average $3.268 a gallon.

Increased refinery production will cushion prices and prevent dramatic spikes, he added. The biggest wild card? Crude oil futures prices. Prices are likely to remain relatively high but stable, but any whiff of geopolitical trouble could push them much higher.